Saturday, April 14, 2012

18 month head start

For fans of D&D 4th or really D&D in general (outside the OSR stuff) the next 18 months are an epic wait. Sure there will be some 4th ed support, but sales will most likely be slow to both consumers and distributors, because WotC has announced 4th is dead already. News about D&D Next and play tests at various events will help keep buzz about the brand going, but not income for the brand. In fact at GAMA 2011, it was clear already D&D 4th had lost ground and Pathfinder had ascended the throne. Now another year plus will pass before the next iteration of the grand old game hits the market.

So lets look at the situation currently, not only has WotC given the golden goose (its rules through OGL) to Paizo and established its own worst enemy (strictly business speaking) but its now left the marketplace virtually vacant leaving current D&D players (wishing to stick with the familiar) with two choices: OSR or Pathfinder. Based on retailer shows and distributors I speak with, in the current retail market, there is only one true choice: Pathfinder.

That is not to say the landscape can't change, or that the vacancy in the market could not lead to an OSR game breaking out, but none of the current crop, good as they are, have achieved a sizable retail presence. So for 18 months there is really only ONE major D&D system based RPG game on the market, Pathfinder.

The next 18 months of Paizo's business will be extremely interesting, because I wonder if they see the same thing I do: an unprecedented window of opportunity. They beat WotC with their own game system and WotC left the market. It really is unprecedented.

To get a sense of what I a talking about: Imagine if Apple gave Microsoft the right to build iOS tablets and devices, MS produced better even more user friendly devices...and then Apple left the market for 18 months with a promise of iPad and iPhone next?? What do you think their stock and investors would do? Sure brand loyalist would stick by them and buy their release...but the world will have moved on.

 Or if Microsoft gave Xbox live and Xbox 360 tech to Sony and Nintendo, and each built a better game system and online experience than MS...and MS said no problem we will be back in 18 months? It is, from a business perspective, unprecedented.

Would Wizards give all of Magic to Konami let them make the exact same game with different art...and then say okay but wait 18 months, then see what we do! no...freaking...way.

So I am looking at the next 18 months with much interest from a strictly business related perspective. I skipped 4th, and plan on skipping 5th or Next or whatever it is called, and I don't play Pathfinder so I don't have a dog in the fight really. I am just curious to see if, after building your own competitor, getting beat by him, leaving the field of battle for awhile, and then attempting a comeback, if it will work? Or will your competitor have gained such a lead that the battle is well and truly lost. Or will a young usurper, and currently unknown step in and take the glory? Time will tell, and what an interesting time it will be.

4 comments:

sevenbastard said...

I think you just explained why they are repackaging 1e and probably more to follow. Keep brand loyalty without a product to sell. Like a greatest hits albumn just to keep people buying your music and listening till you get back in the studio. To reddening yourself for your concept album.

Clovis Cithog said...

Once again, thank the visionary Ryan Darcy,
He has saved our rules system.
4th edition was a failure
.. . .
Hasbro has decided that pen-n-paper RPGs are not financially viable for a large corporation …
The D&D brand will be retained for other media
(movies, video games, etc.)
….
DnD next will never materialize ,
Corporations are not fools, they understand that
you cannot please all the people, all the time
. . .
In a decade, we will all be playing our own
house rule version of path finder

Good bye, new Coke
I now drink Pepsi

Tedankhamen said...

@Cloves - As a teacher in an economics department, your prediction that WotC will flog the IP name without making an actual pen and paper game makes chilling sense. Still, with their history of mismanagement that might shit out something half digested against the odds...

JB said...

Great analysis. Ugh...I just wonder how much deeper my disgust for their actions can get...